[IEA] National Climate Resilience Assessment for Iraq
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IEA
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About this report
From 2000 to 2023, Iraq experienced an average warming rate of 0.48 °C per decade, exceeding the global average of 0.37 °C. Temperatures are set to continue to rise, and are projected to rise by 2.5 °C in a low-emissions scenario and 5.6 °C in a high-emissions scenario by the end of the century compared with pre‑industrial times. The country's electricity system is already under significant strain with transmission losses ranking among the highest in the world (50-60%) and a significant divergence between nameplate and actual generation capacities, largely due to decades of conflict and war. Rising temperatures, along with more frequent and intense heatwaves, are expected to increase demand for air conditioning and refrigeration which are substantially adding to peak demand. This makes the reliable operation of the grid during heat waves increasingly difficult and could contribute to continued reliability challenges. This is further compounded by reduced output gas-fired power plants and increased losses from grid transmission.
Iraq has significant regional variation in annual precipitation, with projected declines in the north and increases in the south. Iraq is facing a heightened risk of droughts, which presents significant challenges to the country's water resources, threatening Iraq's oil and gas extraction activities, which highly depend on water availability for their operation. Paradoxically, at the same time, Iraq is among the most exposed countries to river floods today. Extreme weather patterns, such as intense rainfall following prolonged periods of drought, can create conditions for high run-off, contributing to flash floods and river overflows. By 2100, one-day maximum precipitation is expected to increase by more than 10% in a low-emissions scenario and by almost 24% in a high-emissions scenario, posing substantial risks to infrastructure, including energy, with Iraq’s electricity grid and refining operations being particularly vulnerable.
Sand and dust storms have become more frequent and intense in the past 20 years. The impacts may pose significant threats to Iraq’s energy sector, potentially reducing solar PV output by over 60%. Iraq has plans to reach 12 GW of solar PV capacity in 2030, which would represent nearly one quarter of power generating capacity installed between now and 2030. Sand and dust transport could also hinder the country’s critical export operations due to interruptions on transport routes.
As per the IEA assessment, Iraq’s energy sector faces significant risks from rising temperatures, heatwaves and droughts, further exacerbating water scarcity. These climate hazards are particularly critical for the electricity system, which is already vulnerable and prone to disruptions. While Iraq has acknowledged the importance of incorporating climate change considerations into its policies, the national frameworks are still evolving. In 2021, Iraq submitted its first Nationally Determined Contributions and initiated the development of its National Adaptation Plan in 2020.
To build a climate-resilient energy system in Iraq, it is essential to implement further policy measures and to incorporate climate resilience considerations into mainstream practices. Investments should focus on rebuilding and developing infrastructure capable of withstanding the impacts of climate change, while also securing against physical threats and cyberthreats. One key intervention would be to prioritise distributed power generation and microgrids, which can be separated from the main grid in the event of widespread disruptions. Additionally, diversifying energy sources, focusing on a more interconnected electricity grid and enhancing disaster risk management can further strengthen the climate resilience of Iraq’s energy sector.
