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[SEI] Can AI produce reliable and consistent data analysis?

SEI
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With recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) tools for research, tasks that would have previously overwhelmed even the most dedicated research teams, such as the systematic analysis of thousands of policy documents, are increasingly within reach. These tools now provide advanced document analysis capabilities even to researchers lacking technical expertise or advanced coding skills.



However, one question still lingers: how can we ensure that AI-generated data meets the quality standards demanded by academic scrutiny?



Here, we explore the potential of AI tools for systematic policy analysis, while also examining the challenges and pitfalls that may prevent AI from fully delivering on its promise.



Evidence-based policy evaluation



In a pilot project conducted by SEI researchers, we aim to assess the advantages, risks and limitations of using AI tools in academic research. Our focus is on policy evaluation analysis. We are currently conducting a large-scale review of outcome and impact evaluations of policy implementation, as well as independent audit reports with the help of SEI’s AI Reader.



Our objective is to uncover the drivers of successful policy implementation in different countries and to extract insights into what enables effective outcomes across diverse national or thematic contexts. Focusing on climate policy, this work aims to address the persistent challenge of linking policies to successful outcomes and to identify patterns of effective implementation within specific national, socio-economic and governance contexts, thereby supporting more informed policymaking.



SEI AI Reader



The SEI AI Reader (beta) is a document analysis tool developed in 2024 by SEI researchers (Babis et al., 2024). It utilizes large language models (LLM), such as ChatGPT, to assist with literature reviews and extract policy-relevant data across various national and thematic contexts. It features a user-friendly interface with customizable input options:




  • A main query panel for targeted prompts.

  • A structured table where users can define (i) key independent variables, (ii) instruct what data needs to be extracted for each variable and, (iii) provide examples to illustrate what should (and should not) be extracted.



The tool’s simple interface is designed to ensure accessibility even for non-technical users.



Creating an analytical framework



To guide our analysis, we conducted a human-led literature review of established policy evaluation frameworks such as those by the OECD and the European Environmental Agency, to identify suitable variables for extracting the key elements that determine policy success. Our analytical framework is structured around two broad themes, focusing on their correlation and causality.




  1. Criteria for establishing successful policy implementation, including effectiveness, efficiency, outcomes and impacts, attribution and spillover effects.

  2. Principles of effective policy implementation processes, such as agenda-setting, policy formulation, content, implementation and stakeholder engagement.



Recognizing that policy processes vary across governance systems, our analytical approach is structured around three “universal” characteristics of effective policy processes: coordination, coherence and integration. Our analytical framework ultimately comprises 12 independent variables and a checklist of 46 questions.



To conduct the analysis, we utilized a newly compiled global database of impact and outcome evaluations, along with extensive repositories of independent audits of national policy implementation. Both databases include metadata and direct access to thousands of documents.



Operationalization and pilot review



With our analytical framework and policy document dataset ready, we initiated a pilot study to test the tool’s capabilities. We began by analysing four documents – both manually and using the AI Reader. We conducted approximately 10 iterative runs on each document using prompts of varying specificity and detail.



The purpose of this iterative process was to calibrate the tool by refining the input query, question formulation and context specification to match the accuracy of human analysis.



Prompt design and tool calibration



We quickly discovered that our initial analytical framework, designed with broad exploratory questions, was not effective in extracting the relevant information. The tool often returned generic, repetitive answers with no evaluative insights or omitted responses altogether.



Through iteration where each question was redesigned and reformulated, we managed to arrive at a solution where answers became more sophistically advanced and analytically complex. This process is reflected in Figure 1, showing how we eventually arrived at answers that corresponded to our analytical framework.

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