About this report

Meeting global targets for energy, climate, and biodiversity conservation has major implications for land use. To ensure that the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 aligns with the goal of protecting 30% of the planet’s land and water by the same date, robust mechanisms that direct solar and wind projects away from the world’s most biodiverse areas are needed. To address the potential impacts of renewable development on biodiversity, the IEA developed the Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM), which identifies areas of overlap between renewable projects, critical mineral mining, and conservation priorities. Using Canada as a case study, this report highlights areas of potential land-use conflict and shows how the country can reach its 30% by 2030 target without significantly hindering the wind and solar development needed to achieve its net zero targets.

PublishedJune 2025

LicenceCC BY 4.0

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Key points

Achieving global energy, climate and biodiversity conservation targets simultaneously has significant implications for land use. At the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP28) in 2023, nearly 200 countries set a target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Based on an assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA), tripling the capacity of renewables globally requires allocating up to an additional 600 000 km² of land – an area the size of France – to utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind power by 2030, and 2 million km² by 2050. In parallel, the IEA estimates that demand for key energy transition minerals – cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements (REEs) – is projected to increase at least fivefold by 2030, requiring more land for mining and processing these minerals. At the same time, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims to protect 30% of the world's land by 2030, requiring an additional 20 million km² of land – an area slightly larger than South America – to be set aside for conservation.

The IEA Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM) identifies potential overlaps between renewables development, energy transition minerals mining and biodiversity conservation. Natural Resources Canada and the IEA partnered to develop this analytical framework capable of highlighting where solar, wind and critical mineral development risk overlapping with important areas for biodiversity conservation around the world, building on Canada’s leadership in providing open-source geospatial information on land use, resource distribution and ecosystems at risk. The new tool compiles 15 global geospatial datasets covering the resource distribution for solar, wind and mineral deposits with datasets on biodiversity and other land-use designations to help resolve competition between various land uses. This analysis is not intended to provide specific recommendations on which lands to protect and which to develop, nor does it reflect an endorsement from the Government of Canada on the metrics and definitions chosen. It rather serves as an example to highlight areas of potential conflict based on the resources and physical attributes of the land. This model can inform a wide array of actors – such as developers searching for sites with high potential away from biodiversity hotspots, or governments and utilities looking to pre-screen that align with land-use objectives and auction them to developers – and was designed to be applicable in regions around the world.

The amount of land required for renewables and critical mineral mining en route to meeting Canada’s net zero by 2050 target is small relative to the total resource potential. By 2050, Canada will need over 50 GW of solar and nearly 80 GW of wind, together requiring up to 15 000 km² of land, an area that is only 1% of the country’s more than 1 200 000 km² of land that is economic and suitable for utility-scale wind and solar development. Canada also hosts over 200 Mt of known key energy transition mineral resources, which would occupy a direct footprint of approximately 7 000 km² if all deposits were to be developed. IEA’s latest high-side projections of Canada’s production indicate that roughly 20% of this known resource would have mining operations ongoing in 2040.

Canada can reach its 30% by 2030 target by protecting its prime biodiversity areas without significantly hindering the wind and solar development needed to reach its net zero targets. Canada would need to conserve an additional 16% of its landmass – an area totalling 1 300 000 km² – by 2030 to meet its 30 by 30 target. If this target was met by prioritising currently unprotected lands most important for global biodiversity, around 1 million km² of these lands would not overlap with Canada’s best wind, solar or mineral resources. This is equivalent to around 14% of Canada’s total land mass.

However, without directing new solar and wind projects away from biodiversity hotpots, new development could conflict with biodiversity conservation efforts. Over 25% of the top-tier solar and wind resources in Canada overlap with unprotected areas important for global biodiversity conservation, and 40% of solar PV and onshore wind power capacity currently under development exhibit the same overlap. Proactive measures, such as environmental pre-screening or designating renewable development zones away from biodiversity hotspots, can redirect future development with minimal impacts on project costs and feasibility. Solar projects have also been competing with Canada’s croplands in recent years, with today’s croplands overlapping with half of the country’s top solar resources. Co-location of wind and solar together or alongside agriculture, as well as incentivising brownfield development, could help reduce the direct land-use conflict.

Several known critical mineral resources overlap or are near lands rich in biodiversity. Around 35% of Canada’s mineral resources key to the energy transition are located in unprotected lands important for global biodiversity conservation, including two of the largest known resources for cobalt and graphite. Mitigating the environmental impacts associated with developing new mining operations depends on diligent site selection, robust environmental assessment of impacts, and taking measures to minimise the risk of any incidents. Over 30% of Canada’s known critical mineral occurrences – indicative of potential resources – do not intersect with top biodiversity lands. These occurrences, if explored, could uncover new resources that fall beyond the most biodiverse areas.

Integrating land-use considerations into energy system planning can reduce negative biodiversity impacts and enhance co‑ordination across land-use priorities. Upfront planning to avoid the most biodiverse areas tends to be the most effective and least expensive way to reduce potential negative impacts and create a more coherent network of protected areas. Land-use planning practices are less mature in other parts of the world – some of which face more acute challenges in balancing conservation targets and other land uses, including energy. Other land-use considerations could be added to this analysis over time, including overlap with areas prone to natural hazard risks, shipping lanes or migratory pathways, lands important for natural carbon sequestration, and lands that may be sensitive for various political or national security reasons. The IEA will continue to advance this modelling in partnership with other countries, including those in developing regions where such planning procedures may not exist today.